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mg行业还有哪些市场待开发

2015/11/11 14:09:52

新型城镇化

将为mg业带来16年发展期

<中国去年的城镇化率大概是53%,要达到70%的中等发达国家水平,至少还要16年。这意味着,传统的工程装修市场还有16年发展期。

mg行业在过去两年以来过得并不痛快,在复杂多变的国际形势下,随着国内经济稳中趋缓的态势不断延续,mg行业面临的国内外环境并没有大的改观,市场环境日趋严峻。根据最新发布的10月份“中国·水头mg指数”月景气分析报告显示,受国内外经济大环境的影响,传统mg出口市场近期实现增幅上升的可能性较小,国内外市场需求稍有抑制,订单合同较上月稍微减少,企业经济效益微幅下调,10月份mg行业整体景气指数延续上月略微下滑的态势。

  在如此的煎熬之下,“紧跟形势,抱团发展”也便成了mg业的诉求。11月8日,第三届水头国际mg论坛现场人头攒动。国内外mg人齐聚一堂,共享智慧盛宴。除了同行业间的交流外,业内专家点拨、解读经济形势和行业趋势,也让层层迷雾的mg业渐渐明朗。

传统工装市场还有16年发展期

  “其实,令mg人担心的2008年金融危机并没有对市场造成多大影响,2009年-2010年,行业仍处在上升阶段。但到2012年,mg业增速开始回落,到今年9月增速回落到10%的水平。”中国mg协会会长邹传胜分析,尽管国内mg行业还处在中高速增长阶段,但行业下行压力增大。

  中国的区域发展战略已经从东、中、西部发展战略升级到京津冀联动、长江经济带、丝绸之路经济带、海上丝绸之路经济带发展战略,这给mg行业和企业提出了新的发展课题。

“过去30年,城镇化给mg行业带来非常好的契机,mg产量和销售也一直在增长。”邹传胜说,中国去年的城镇化率大概是53%,要达到70%的中等发达国家水平,至少还要16年。这意味着,传统的工程装修市场还有16年发展期。

那么,在这16年里,还有哪些市场是mg行业有待开发的呢?邹传胜认为,家装市场是未来的主流。“从统计数据看,规模以上零售市场里面,建筑与装潢材料零售总额的增幅一直保持稳定增长。即使是今年房地产市场不好,建筑与装潢材料在零售市场上总额依然保持着12%的增幅。”

邹传胜给mg人算了一笔账。根据2012年统计年报,国家城镇人口71182万人,政府工作报告人均住房32.9平方米,则住房保有量是234.2亿平方米。如果按照国家中等户型100平方米一套来算,房屋保有量就有2亿多套。“家装市场拥有潜在、巨大的mg需求,16年稍纵即逝,企业如果不抓紧转型,很快会陷入被动。”邹传胜说,“mg产业要从以工装为主向工装与家装并重转型。”

密集批复基建项目释放稳增长信号

  宏观经济形势的波动,时刻影响着mg产业的景气起伏。在朱孟楠看来,中国目前的宏观经济形势压力颇大。“改革开放30多年来,中国GDP增长平均数是9%,一直到今年不断出现重心向下调整的态势,重心下移,经济运行压力很大。”

不过,他认为企业应该对整体形势保持乐观。他说,党的十八届三中全会以来,中国政府出台了一系列经济刺激政策,正是国内经济发展最强大的动力。

据朱孟楠透露,在海关总署召开的有关2013年一季度我国进出口情况发布会上有数据显示,2012年第四季度国家发改委批复了总额约7万亿元的投资项目,重点涉及轨道交通、公路、机场等基建项目,这些都是和mg行业息息相关的大项目。

2014年,政策发力带来的市场刺激愈加明显。今年10月16日到11月5日的21天时间内,国家发改委先后批复了16条铁路和5个机场的大项目,这21个项目总投资额达到6933.74亿元。朱孟楠说,国家发改委密集批复基建项目,以对冲房地产等领域的疲软,释放出明显的稳增长意图。

朱孟楠对宏观经济大环境十分乐观。他表示,1981年到1994年是国内经济恢复性增长时期,1994年到2012年是经济崛起时期。在接下去的20年内,如果中国经济突破发展瓶颈,那么2012年-2032年将是中国经济的腾飞时期。

新型城镇化将为装饰产业创造巨大需求

“虽然经济下行压力增大,但装饰行业协会发展态势依然强劲。去年全行业总量是2.96万亿元,比上年度同比增长12%。”在经济形势不景气的情况下,朱时均的一席话无疑让大家信心一振。

  但在看到增速的同时,今年装饰行业发展形势放缓的现实也不得不引起关注。

  “过去十几年,装饰行业一直保持高速发展,直到2013年,在经济发展放缓的情况下,任何一个产业都受到宏观政策的影响,装饰产业也不例外。”朱时均说,在过去几个月,他走访了多家知名装饰企业,并从企业负责人处得知目前市场情况并不乐观。

“今年三四月,做工装的企业就很忧虑,感觉发展前景有问题;到五六月份,大家缓了一口气,略有起色;而到八九月份,形势急转直下。”他说,明年对部分企业而言,可能不只是增速放缓,而是负增长的问题。

  即便如此,他仍然看好装饰行业的前景。“城市化率每年提高1个百分点就带来1300万城镇人口,这1300万人需要住房、娱乐设施、餐厅等,就会带来源源不断的市场。”

  据介绍,两年前,中装协曾作了一个课题研究,研究预测:未来3年,中国装饰市场存量在1.5万亿元到1.8万亿元,主要来自于建筑改建、扩建、功能的转换等,增量市场将达到1.6万亿元到2.1万亿元。“装饰行业未来发展可用三句话来形容:发展压力大,明年形势不乐观;具有长期的成长空间;还有强大的需求支撑。”朱时均说。

“好文化”才能让企业持久发展

这两年来,如何挖掘mg文化内涵成为时兴话题,mg文化营销方兴未艾。

为什么要谈mg文化?“我认为传统mg产业转型升级的最终归属、最终方法就是产业文化,也就是mg文化。”刘良如此回答。

  他说,目前传统mg产业在转型升级过程中,难免会碰到一些问题和困惑,首先是企业应该转型还是升级。其次,企业是做大还是做强?企业如何避免诱惑,专注发展。他认为,企业应该脚踏实地,切勿好高骛远,先做大,专注做事,再寻求做强。转型是一个质的变化,升级则是一个循序渐进的过程,是有层次、有版本可言的。

  “我认为有4个版本,1.0是好产品,产品是升级的基础;2.0是好企业,好企业支撑好产品;3.0是好品牌,做企业必须做品牌,这样才能创造蓝海,脱离价格战;4.0版本即是好文化,也就是产业文化。”刘良说,只有好的文化才能实现传承,才能让企业、全产业持久发展。而目前,英良还处在循序渐进的升级过程中。

刘良还表示,讲文化不能天马行空,必须立足在产业基础上,建立在实体经济上。英良目前正在筹办“印象五号”石文化博物馆,作为传播石文化的载体。

据介绍,除了成立专业博物馆之外,英良集团还和厦门大学人类学教授合作编撰《石纪》,即人类与mg的文明发展史,探求石文化的深刻内涵,为mg文化添砖加瓦。

房地产行业或进入稳定发展期

  杨平宇判断,分类调控、分城施策仍然会是今年房地产调控的主基调。李克强总理在2014年政府工作报告中指出:“针对不同城市情况分类调控,增加中小套商品房和共有产权住房的供应,抑制投机投资性需求,促进房地产市场持续健康发展。”在此背景下,房地产行业限购政策截至目前已大范围退出,政策也相应放开。

他指出,中国经济将由高速增长期向中高速增长期转变。尽管经济增速放缓,但经济结构调整、产业转型升级、体制改革进入深水区等因素,都有利于推动房地产行业向精细化、服务化方向发展,房地产行业将在经济发展和新型城镇化中继续发挥重要作用。

当前,多地取消行政限购后,在央行放开限贷后,房地产成交量有所回升,但仍未出现销售全面好转的实质性变化。他预测,未来政府将维持分类调控的主基调,基于此,房地产市场将更多地呈现区域化、差异化特点;房地产供给和需求将更多地由市场因素决定,行业有望进入稳定发展阶段。

New urbanization

Will bring 16 years period of development for the stone industry

China last year's urbanization rate is about 53%, to reach 70% of the level of moderately developed countries, it will take at least 16 years. This means that the traditional engineering decoration market, there are 16 years period of development.

Stone industry in the past two years did not have, in the complicated and changeable international situation, with the slowdown in domestic economic steady trend continues, stone industry faces the domestic and foreign environment did not change much, the market environment is becoming more and more serious. According to the latest release of "October Chinese - Shuitou index" month boom analysis report showed that, influenced by the international and domestic economic environment, the traditional stone export market growth realized in the near future less likely to rise, the domestic and international market demand slightly inhibited, relatively on the month order contract slightly reduced, the economic efficiency of enterprises closed down, October stone industry overall boom index trend continuation down slightly from last month.

Under such suffering, "closely follow the situation, developing together" also became a stone industry demand. In November 8th, the third session of the head stone International Forum scene bobs. Domestic and foreign stone together, sharing wisdom feast. In addition to the inter industry exchanges, industry experts advice, interpretation of the economic situation and the trend of industry, but also to let the layers of dense fog in the stone industry gradually clear.

Traditional decoration market and 16 year development period

"In fact, make stone people worried about the financial crisis in 2008 and did not cause much impact on the market, in 2009 -2010 years, the industry is still in the rising stage. But by 2012, the stone industry growth rate began to decline, in September of this year the growth rate dropped to 10% level." Analysis of Chinese stone association president Zou Chuansheng, although the domestic stone industry is still in the stage of high-speed growth, but the industry downward pressure increases.

The strategy of regional development China has from the East, medium, western development strategy to upgrade to the Beijing Tianjin Hebei linkage, the Yangtze River economic belt, Silk Road Economic Belt, Silk Road on the Sea Economic Zone Development Strategy, which put forward new development issues to the stone industry and enterprise.

"Over the past 30 years, the town bring great opportunity to the stone industry, stone production and sales have been growing." Zou Chuansheng said, Chinese last year's urbanization rate is about 53%, to reach 70% of the level of moderately developed countries, it will take at least 16 years. This means that the traditional engineering decoration market, there are 16 years period of development.

So, in this 16 years, what the market is stone industry to be developed? Zou Chuansheng thinks, the home market is the mainstream of the future. "Look from statistical data, the above scale retail market, building and decoration materials retail sales growth has maintained steady growth. Even this year the real estate market is not good, building and decoration materials in the retail market is still maintained a 12% increase in total."

Zou Chuansheng calculated brushstroke Zhang to stone people. According to the annual report 2012 statistics, the national urban population of 711820000 people, the government work report per 32.9 square meters of housing, housing ownership is 23420000000 square meters. If in accordance with the national secondary apartment layout a 100 square meters of housing ownership to count, there are 2 million sets. "Jiezhuang market has huge potential, demand for stone, 16 years of transient, if the enterprise does not pay close attention to the transformation, will soon fall into a passive." Zou Chuansheng said, "the stone industry to to tooling and pay equal attention to Jiezhuang transition from tooling."

Intensive approved infrastructure projects to release the steady growth of signal

Macroeconomic volatility, always affects the stone industry boom fluctuation. In Zhu Mengnan view, the current macroeconomic situation China considerable pressure. "30 years of reform and opening up, Chinese GDP growth, the average was 9%, this year has been to appear constantly center of gravity downward adjustment of economic operation situation, center of gravity down, a lot of pressure."

However, he believes that enterprises should be the overall situation of optimism. He said, the party since the Third Plenary Session of the eighteen, China government promulgated a series of policies to stimulate the economy, it is the most powerful force for the development of the domestic economy.

According to Zhu Mengnan, held in the General Administration of Customs on 2013 a quarter of China's import and export situation conference data shows, the fourth quarter of 2012, the national development and Reform Commission approved a total of about 7 yuan of investment projects, mainly relates to rail transportation, highway, airport and other infrastructure projects, these are closely linked and stone industry a big project.

In 2014, policy force brought more obvious market stimulation. This year in October 16th to November 5th of 21 days, the national development and Reform Commission has approved 16 railways and 5 airport project, the 21 projects a total investment of 693374000000 yuan. Zhu Mengnan said, the national development and Reform Commission intensive approved infrastructure projects to hedge, weak real estate fields, release the obvious intention of steady growth.

Zhu Mengnan is very optimistic about the macro economic environment. He said, 1981 to 1994 is the domestic economic recovery growth period, 1994 to 2012 is the period of economic rise. In the next 20 years, if China economic breakthrough development bottleneck, so in 2012 -2032 years will be China economic take-off period.

New urbanization will create a huge demand for decoration industry

"Although the economy downward pressure increase, but the decoration industry association development trend is still strong. Last year the industry total amount is 2.96 yuan, grow 12% than last year over year." In the economic situation downturn, Zhu Shijun's no doubt let everyone confidence vibration.

But after seeing the growth rate at the same time, this year's decoration industry development situation of slowdown in reality also had cause for concern.

"In the past ten years, decoration industry has maintained rapid development, until 2013, in the economic slowdown situation, any one industry be affected by macroeconomic policies, decoration industry is no exception." Zhu Shijun said that in the past few months, he visited many famous enterprises, and from the person in charge of the enterprise that the current market situation is not optimistic. "This year, three or four months, work clothing enterprise is very anxious, has the development prospects of feeling; to five or six months, we breathe a sigh of relief, slightly better; and to the eight or nine month, the situation worsened." He said that next year on the part of enterprises, may not just the slowdown, but negative growth problems.

Even so, he is still optimistic about the prospects for decoration industry. "Urbanization rate of annual increase of 1 percentage points would bring 13000000 urban population, the 13000000 people in need of housing, entertainment facilities, restaurants, will bring a steady stream of market."

According to introduction, two years ago, Chinese dress has made a research and Study on prediction: the next 3 years, China's stock market to the decoration 1.8 trillion yuan in 1.5 trillion yuan, mainly from the building renovation and expansion, the function of the transfer, the incremental market will reach 1.6 yuan to 2.1 yuan. "Decoration industry development in the future can use three words to describe: development pressure, next year the situation is not optimistic; has a long-term growth space; there is a strong demand for support." Zhu Shijun said.

"Good culture" can make enterprises sustainable development

These two years, how to excavate the cultural connotation of becoming the popular topic of stone, stone culture marketing be just unfolding.

Why should we talk about stone culture? "I think the ultimate attribution, traditional stone industrial transformation and upgrading of the final method is to culture industry, also is the stone culture." Liu Liang is so answer.

He said, at present, the traditional stone industry in the process of transformation and upgrading, will inevitably encounter some problems and puzzles, first is the enterprise should transition or upgrade. Secondly, the enterprise is bigger or stronger? Enterprises how to avoid temptation, focus on the development of. He thinks, the enterprise should stand on solid ground, do not aim too high, the first major, focus, and then seek a stronger. The transformation is a qualitative change, upgrade is a gradual process, there is a hierarchy, with version at all.

"I think there are 4 version, 1 is a good product, the product is the upgrading of foundation; 2 is a good business, good business support good products; 3 is a good brand, do enterprise must do brand, so as to create blue ocean, from the price war; the 4 version is good culture, is also the industry culture." Liu Liang said, only good culture can achieve inheritance, could let enterprises, the whole industry sustainable development. At present, English is still in the process of benign upgrade step by step in.

Liu Liang also said, speaking culture cannot be a powerful and unconstrained style, must be based on the industry foundation, built on the real economy. Yingliang is currently preparing for a "impression of No. five" stone culture museum, as the carrier of the dissemination of stone culture.

According to the introduction, in addition to the establishment of professional museum, Ying Liang group has worked with the Xiamen University anthropology professor Shi Ji "compilation", namely, the history of the development of human civilization and the stone, to explore the profound meaning of stone culture, do what little one can to help for the stone culture.

The real estate industry or into the stable development period

Stone industry and the real estate industry is closely related to. Therefore, the real estate trend, has also been a lot of people concerned about the weather vane of stone. Look in Yang Pingyu, although the speed of development and the development path of policy regulation will temporarily change the real estate industry, but the development direction and mode of the real estate industry will still follow the market go.

Yang Pingyu judgment, classification regulation, the city policy will still be the main tone of this year the real estate regulation. Premier Li Keqiang pointed out in the government work report of 2014: "in view of the different urban classification regulation, increase the medium and small commercial housing units and common property right of housing supply, curb speculative investment demand, and promote the sustained and healthy development of the real estate market." Under this background, the real estate industry is restricted to buy policy up to now has a large range of exit, policy accordingly open.

He pointed out that, China economy will change from a period of rapid growth to high-speed growth period. Despite the economic slowdown, but the economic structure adjustment, industrial restructuring and upgrading, system reform enters deep water area and other factors, are conducive to promoting the development of the real estate industry to refinement, service orientation, the real estate industry will continue to play an important role in the economic development and new urbanization.

At present, to cancel the administrative purchase, in opening up the central bank limited credit, real estate turnover rebounded, but still does not appear substantial changes in sales overall improvement. He predicted, the future government will maintain the main tone, classification regulation based on this, the real estate market will be more present, characteristics of regional differences; real estate supply and demand will be more by the market factors, the industry is expected to enter the stage of stable development.